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gafa
all information on this page is covered by the document confidentially and liability agreement available via the above click thru marked "Conf & Liab".
welcome to gafamutualfunds.com investment web site of Michael "Woody" O'Brien ChFC for clients of Guardian Angel Financial Advisory firm.
Welcome! For over 30 years now I have been a financial advisor there have never been more choices for investors or more financial landmine's to avoid. Irrational high and low prices occur in every market. However, the lesson of the turtle and the hare: slow and steady wins the race long term is often forgotten. In a nutshell, I offer conservative investing based on value, not speculation, works longer term. I offer a variety of model portfolios for retirees, retirement plans (inc. 401k) trusts, college savings, and non-qualified investors on their choice of a flat fee, hourly, transaction or percentage of assets basis.
My average 2008 net compensation after expenses was 0.29% (about $24 per month per 100k of account value).
My average client beat market by over 30% in 2008.
A recent study that claims only 1 in 10,000 financial advisors have a 20 year career without a legal dispute or disciplinary action.
I am now over 30 years without either for one simple reason: Nobody is better informed or spends more time watching all global markets in pursuit of good investment returns with lower total risk. I have NEVER lost a client because I lost them money.
My work ethic is simply watching every market, every news story, everyday. When you study everything everyday, like a devoted scientist, in spite of short term gyrations, its hard to miss the big longer term trends. My longer term track record vs the sp500
(see below) is evidence of this approach.
I don't do this job for the money, I already have enough to retire. I keep working because I LOVE MY JOB, feel fortunate to be good at it, and well serve so many REALLY NICE people. When you love what you do, you never really "work" a day in your life.
I am grateful for all the NICE people I get to work for. Each year I try to do even more "pro bono" FREE consultation work that serves people near the bottom of the economic ladder who need sound financial advice. I believe in the concept of paying it forward, and virtuous circles and will try to help anybody who asks, REGARDLESS of their ability to pay.
Please feel free to email me at this secure encrypted email address (mailto:MwoodyO@hushmail.com) with any question or inquiry on how I can assist your. Client references and my dispute free, clean federal regulatory history report is available in PDF on request.
Our model portfolio results as of 9-30-2009
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3rd
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YTD
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YTD 2009
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SINCE
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QRT
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2009
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vs sp500
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1-1-05
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Franklin "
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13.11%
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29.00%
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11.97%
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69.03%
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Vm-SB
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10.50%
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9.21%
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-7.82%
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31.79%
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AIM A "
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13.66%
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24.15%
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7.12%
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57.73%
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AIM B "
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13.44%
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23.75%
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6.72%
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57.19%
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UFP
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3.73%
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23.23%
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6.20%
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0.37%
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SP500 index
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14.98%
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17.03%
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0.00%
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-12.78%
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US dollar index
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-4.49%
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-6.43%
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-3.81%
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-13.63%
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spot Gold
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8.74%
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15.98%
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-1.05%
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131.89%
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spot silver
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19.51%
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54.40%
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37.37%
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244.46%
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spot Oil
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-0.26%
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51.88%
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34.85%
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61.98%
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Of course individual results in the model portfolios can be slightly higher or lower depending on if new money was invested in 2009,
rollovers between accounts occurred or money was withdrawn.
Our recent years track record of gains vs the sp500 loss is SIMPLY FANTASTIC!!! Most of my (and Holly's) personal wealth is invested in the EXACT SAME model portfolios my clients are invested in, so be assured how we ALL prosper TOGETHER. I even use the apple Iphone to check overseas markets most people are sleeping.
Less than 1% of my clients money remains in the Putnam model portfolio. I expect that number will be nearly zero by January 1 2009 as we end our model portfolio with Putnam. Please note we are having MUCH better results this quarter with the new Security benefit model portfolio that has a gold fund that replaced Valumark that did not. Precious metals and energy investments remain the best way to protect your money from coming bailout hyperinflation.
Last 12 months chart: SP500 index in blue, gold in red as of 0/30/09.
My market commentary as of 9/1/2008 Short executive summary:
Trillions of new bailout dollars created out of thin air by the private banksters of the federal reserve have not done anything for main street USA. However, the sugar rush of all that electronically counterfeited fiat money pumped directly into financial markets gave the SP500 index a big +14.98% pop even while putting the US dollar in even greater peril.
Oil was flat amidst weak demand. Gold's and silvers were again strong among inflation plays. Gold and Silver remain dirt cheap and every American should have some PHYSICAL POSSESSION for barter in the event of paper dollar collapse. There have been about 3000 fiat paper currencies since the printing press was invented and over 2900 of them are now worthless. The average fiat paper money life is 35 years, and the no gold backing US dollar is now 38 years old.
PEOPLE WHO THINK THE VALUE OF THE US DOLLAR IS IMMUNE TO COLLAPSE ARE SIMPLY
IN DENIAL OF THE US BAILOUT INFLATION REALITY.
My average mutual fund model portfolio client gained +12.68% this quarter and have beat the sp500 by +4.49% so far in 2009.
I remain bearish on most US stocks for the next 12-24 months because:
1. Bailouts: Politicians who advocate taxpayer or Fed bailouts are either fools or tools of banking interests. There is nothing good for the country bailouts. The bailouts will result in hyperinflation, the only doubt is when will it hit.
2. Energy prices: As the US dollar keeps falling long term, energy priced in US dollars CAN stay strong regardless of weak demand.
3. Housing: Home prices under 150k may have already seen their cycle lows. With 30 year fixed mortgage rates under 5%, those who need to borrow to buy may never get a better deal, however cash buyers may want to wait for even lower prices that higher interest rates will bring soon.
4. Gold & commodity prices: Given dollar & debt problems there is no likely way gold stays near $1000 an ounce much longer.
$3535 GOLD AND $100 silver by 12/2012 is my prediction. With bailout inflation, predictions by some economists of $5 eggs, $10 milk, $8 gas, and $5000 gold priced in dollars are no longer absurd. Investment demand for gold & silver is soaring. Expect more and more insurance companies, banks and pension funds to soon wise up and add precious metals to their reserves.
5. Confidence: Can you say Fed fraud ? Just where did that 24 TRILLION in bailout money go? Confidence in the financial system is toast, expect additional fraud based bailout schemes.
6. Earnings: Most consumers are broke and profits of most US companies are imploding. As I predicted last quarter, at least 1 major US auto maker has gone broke. Yes Virginia, GM is bankrupt THIS IS A DEPRESSION. Near none of our fool or tool leaders has a clue how a wind and solar power revolution could, (like the Internet in the late 90's) make the US economy grow again.
7. Bird flu: Outbreaks of bird flu keep popping up in the 3rd world, no documented mutation of bird flu killing anyone by human to human transmission has yet occurred. The risk of bird flu pandemic mutation spread by human to human contact is clearly on the rise. Experts claim bird flu could kill 30-50 million Americans and a billion people worldwide.
My long version market commentary:
What going on in financial markets? In a nutshell, what we are seeing unfold is nothing short of World War 3.
However, this war is not being fought with tanks, or planes, its being fought with economic power and over economic power.
This economic war is between our 99% corrupt, bankster owned, US government vs everybody else on the planet esp. China
Has the day of debt reckoning finally arrived, for an America underwater in unpayable debts accumulated since 1913? Are global central banksters running out of tricks to manipulate the exchange value of the US fiat dollar? Is our "backed by nothing" debt based dollar note of the private federal reserve doomed to eventually fall to worthlessness?
This crisis a pretext to gradually inflate the dollars purchasing power into dust so at some point a new Global currency. Foreigners and investors keep lending the US government and consumers money they can't repay without e-printing inflation.
American democracy simply dead when, seemingly at will, PRIVATE central banksters with unchecked money power can so completely own most of our alleged "leaders" they can dump TRILLIONS of toxic PRIVATE debt at taxpayers door when its openly admitted near 100% calls and emails from Americans to congress were in TOTAL opposition to the fraudulent bailout.
Look at the failures of 2008: Fanny Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Sterns, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual, Lehman brothers, AIG, Wachovia and many more to come. What they all have in common is the toxic waste debts in them is headed to taxpayers, while the valuable remaining assets are being gobbled up by HUGE money center banks like J.P. Morgan, Citibank, Bank of America and Wells Fargo.
Those very same money center banks are some of the shareholder OWNERS of the PRIVATE federal reserve bank and are the HUGE beneficiaries of the crisis the fed they jointly own created. If you don't smell the rat in that fraudulent arrangement, check your pulse.
Given the federal reserve stooges that dominate the economic team of President Obama its foolish to believe any real change will occur in our debt driven economic problems.
There can never be a real and lasting cure for America's economic cancers without total abolition of the PRIVATE federal reserve bank and its fiat money and debt creation power. America needs a sound money system to recover to past greatness.
A bill to just audit the Federal reserve has over a 280 majority of co-sponsors in the house or representatives, yet so far corrupt leadership has prevented a vote of the bill.
We need only to read our history books to verify this reality. When President Andrew Jackson abolished the 2nd American central bank in 1832 it resulted in over 80 years of ZERO inflation GROWTH. To this day that record remains the longest period of no net inflation economic growth in the history of fiat money.
So what does a savvy investor do right now?
In my opinion the MOST important thing is to ignore current mispriced values of stocks, gold, energy, and the dollar.
A good example of this: The spot market prices for paper Gold and silver contracts for future delivery are meaningless. Real people are, by the millions, bidding for immediate physical delivery of gold and silver from dealers and on ebay at prices far above spot markets. Immediate delivery prices of gold and silver are the REAL PRICE, not spot markets paper promises. Many metals dealers are simply out of good inventory to sell to investors a few days each week. In real life shortages are why prices soar.
The question for all investors is NOT what assets are priced at in today's markets. The question is what will prices for assets be in a year as bailout hyperinflation surges, and the dollar collapses.
Dollar based paper based assets like most US stocks and bonds will most likely do VERY poorly in the next year.
Real assets like Gold, energy, non-dollar holdings, and a few real estate categories are inflations most likely beneficiaries
With America is on the edge of an hyperinflation abyss, the downside risk of most stocks remains substantial. However, the upside possibilities of inflation assets like gold and energy in the next 6-24 months is easily 80-100%. That's why our model portfolios will remain overweighed in gold, energy, China and non-dollar funds.
I have ZERO doubt, even with the bailout, we remain at the most dangerous moment for the worlds financial system since 1929.
None of the above reasons, I am bearish on stocks are reasons to have anything beyond current bills and emergency money in banks (credit unions ARE MUCH SAFER). Those deposits are VERY vulnerable to stagflation. Bank CD now really means, Certain Devaluation of your purchasing power by the maturity date.
In spite of the last quarter our model portfolios of money funds, inflation protected bonds, global-hard currency bonds, energy and/or gold funds should do VERY well in the next 12-24 months and are well deserving of your investing of new money.
I am also recommending clients consider holding a few months of their bills in physical delivered precious metals for barter and as a insurance policy against the great risk the dollars value will fall dramatically.
Carpe Diem,
Michael "Woody" O'Brien ChFC
Please call or email me at MwoodyO@hushmail.com if you have new money to invest now or any kind of questions regarding your accounts or any investment question.
I greatly appreciate your referrals, especially to those retiring or changing jobs with 401k or other pension distribution money to invest. When not prohibited by state law I send 1oz silver coin(s) as a thank you to all existing clients who send me new clients with over 25k to invest in A or B shares. Remember the less time I spend looking for new clients, the more time I have to keep a watchful eye on everyone's money.
Call anytime me at 1-800-479-CHFC (local 717.691.0605)
Please note for security of your records, my street address is NEVER posted anywhere on my web site. My snail mail zip code 21795
po box address is on all your statements. If you are not sure of the address to send me US postal service snail mail call me at the numbers shown above.
PLEASE SEND ME YOUR REGULAR OR CELL PHONE EMAIL ADDRESS IF YOU HAVE ONE AND RECEIVED THIS NEWSLETTER VIA REGULAR US MAIL.
last update 7-1-09 1119am est
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